Volatility is measurable, comparable and convenient, which is why it dominates risk reporting. It is also a poor description of what concerns most investors. Few people are troubled by upside dispersion. What matters is the chance of a permanent loss of capital, or of being unable to fund a commitment when it falls due.
Three risks worth stating separately
Each of these has a different remedy, which is why combining them into one figure is unhelpful.
- Permanent impairment: capital that does not recover, as distinct from capital that declines temporarily.
- Shortfall: the portfolio fails to meet the obligation it exists to fund.
- Forced action: circumstances require a sale at a time and price the investor would not have chosen.
Why horizon changes the answer
The same portfolio carries different risk for different investors, because risk depends on when the capital is needed. A decline is a fluctuation for an investor with two decades of horizon and a realised loss for one who must sell next year. This is why horizon is established before allocation, and why a portfolio cannot be assessed as risky or conservative in the abstract.
This note is general information about investment process. It is not investment, legal or tax advice, not a recommendation, and not an assessment of suitability for any particular investor. Investment involves risk, including the possible loss of capital.